Scientists rule out asteroid 2024 YR4 threat to Earth in 2032
After two months of observations, scientists have virtually ruled out any threat to Earth from the newly detected asteroid 2024 YR4, NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) said Tuesday.
At one point, the odds of an impact in 2032 were about 3% and topped the world's asteroid risk lists.
The ESA has since lowered the odds to 0.001%. NASA has lowered them to 0.0027%, meaning the asteroid will safely pass close to Earth in 2032 and there is no threat of impact for the next century.
Paul Chodas, who heads NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies, said there's no chance the odds will increase at this point and that an impact in 2032 has been ruled out.
“That is the outcome we were hoping for from the beginning, although we couldn’t be 100% sure it would happen,” he explained in an email.
However, there is still a 1.7% chance that the asteroid could hit the Moon on Dec. 22, 2032, according to NASA. Chodas expects the odds of a Moon impact to decrease as well.
Telescopes around the world will continue to track the asteroid as it moves away from us, with the Webb Space Telescope focusing next month on determining its size. It is expected to disappear from view in a month or two.
Discovered in December, the asteroid has an estimated diameter of between 40 and 90 meters and passes close to us every four years.
“While this asteroid no longer poses a significant impact hazard to Earth, 2024 YR4 provided an invaluable opportunity” for the study, NASA said in a statement.
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