Superbugs could kill millions by 2050: Silent threat will also hit the economy

According to research, "superbugs" could kill millions of people by 2050 and cost the global economy an estimated $2 trillion.

A UK government-funded study shows that without concerted action, rising rates of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) will cost the world $1.7 billion in annual gross domestic product (GDP) losses over the next quarter century, according to The Guardian newspaper.

EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY 60 PERCENT

According to the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME), deaths from AMR are expected to increase by 60 percent by 2050. An estimated 1.34 million people in the US and 184,000 in the UK alone will die each year from antibiotic-resistant bugs, while the number of people becoming seriously ill from drug-resistant bacteria is also expected to rise.

Extending hospital stays

Superbugs are increasing the number of hospitalizations, leading to longer and more intensive stays, more costly second-line treatments, and more complex care. This means that resistant infections are about twice as expensive to treat as infections where antibiotics are effective.

WHICH COUNTRIES WILL BE MOST AFFECTED?

The study estimates that global health costs of treating AMR could rise by just under $176 billion a year, from $900 million to $3.7 billion in the UK and from $15.5 billion to just under $57 billion in the US.

Research by the Centre for Global Development think tank has revealed that the US, UK and EU economies will be among the hardest hit, prompting accusations that recent deep aid cuts are self-destructive.

"EVEN THE MOST SUCCESSFUL COUNTRIES ARE AT RISK"

Anthony McDonnell, lead author of the study and a policy expert at the Center for Global Development, said that even countries that have been successful in controlling AMR rates cannot afford to be complacent. He noted that unless AMR programs are protected from aid cuts, resistance rates worldwide will likely rise at a rate similar to those in the worst-affected countries.

McDonnell added: “This will lead to millions more deaths worldwide, including in the G7 countries. Investing in treating bacterial infections now will save lives and deliver billions of dollars in long-term economic returns.”

WORKFORCE WILL DECREASE

The research calculated the economic and health burden of antibiotic resistance for 122 countries and estimated that, in this most pessimistic scenario, GDP losses could reach just under $722 billion per year in China by 2050, $295.7 billion in the US, $187 billion in the EU, $65.7 billion in Japan and $58.6 billion in the UK.

Higher rates of resistant insects would also reduce workforces in the UK, EU and US by 0.8%, 0.6% and 0.4% respectively, according to the research.

But if countries invest more in combating superbugs – that is, increasing access to new antibiotics and high-quality treatment of these infections – the US economy would grow by $156.2 billion a year by 2050, and the UK by $12 billion.